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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/23 10:58

   Grain Trade Mixed at Midday

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 180. The dollar index is 
25 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with 
crude down $1.30. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals 
are mixed with gold $8.60 higher.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments




   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade scoring a new high 
for the move before fading slightly at midday. Ethanol margins continue to 
decline with flat futures action post report with production down 46,000 
barrels per day, with stocks up 1.025 million barrels, putting stocks ahead 
year on year. U.S. weather will likely limit short-term movement in most areas 
with warmer weather expected to be on the way into the end of the month. Basis 
should remain sideways to slightly firmer. The export wire showed some lift 
with 114,224 metric tons sold to Guatemala, and 141,000 metric tons sold to 
unknown. On the March contract support is the 20-day at $3.86, with resistance 
the new high at $3.93 3/4.


   Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower with trade continuing to bore into 
resistance levels with export support lacking and South American progress 
remaining robust. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil was 35 to 45 points 
lower. The Brazilian ral remains very cheap as well hurting U.S. export 
competitiveness, although it has gained slightly this morning. South American 
weather remains within the recent pattern for soybeans as well with early 
harvest underway. Basis has remained steady at processors with the strong crush 
margins. The March chart support is at $9.00 with psychological support there, 
and resistance is the lower Bollinger band at $9.11.


   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed with trade working to hold the upper end of 
the range after the reversal yesterday and overbought conditions along with 
little fresh news. Cold threats remain limited for the Plains with most of the 
moisture staying to the east, with western snow cover remaining limited, and 
warmer conditions expected to return to most short term. Kansas City is at an 
86 cent discount to Chicago, while Minneapolis is back to a 20 cent discount. 
The March Kansas City chart support is the 20-day moving average at $4.85, with 
resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 5.05.


   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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